Category: Misc

Aaron Rodgers & Pre-Snap Motion

The use of motion has been one of the major trends facing defensive football in the past several years. Analytically, the use of motion by offenses has a distinct advantage. Defenses are reactionary in nature, so moving someone pre-snap can give the offense an edge or throw the defense off balance. Seth Walder, ESPN Sports Analytics, tweeted this about the Week 1 NFL usage of motion:

EPA/P is the average “Expected Points Added” divided by the number of plays. This stat illuminates how efficient an offense is as they go down the field. EPA as a stand-alone stat rates how many points an offense is expected to gain (or lose) depending on the yard line and Down & Distance. Each play is rated against where they started and where they finished. That number is the plays EPA. Since yards gained is a flawed stat, EPA uses expected points from historical data to calculate how effective the play was at creating scoring opportunities. Did you put money in the back or take it away? Defensively, this can be used to measure the effectiveness of calls during a drive.

For Week 2 usage rates, click HERE

Two types of motion are studied by analysts. Pre-snap shifts (everyone is set) and motion as the ball is snapped, or what ESPN refers to as “Snap Motion.” Shifts are when a player moves from one spot and establishes himself in another. He is not moving when the ball is snapped. Snap Motion is when the offensive player is moving horizontally as the ball is snapped.

Football is about leverage. Motion uses speed to leverage the defense. Since NFL defenses are so man heavy, it is not surprising that the use of Snap Motion has led to higher EPA/P success.

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Desert Heat: The Air Raid Invades the NFL – Pt. 2

Part 1 talked roster building. Part 2 talks scheme. What will this look like in the NFL?

In the first part of this series, we explored the Cardinals’ roster, which is the most important part of this Air Raid-to-NFL experiment. There are pieces in place to make the transition to running the Air Raid scheme go relatively smooth in the desert. One main factor will be the initial success of Kyler Murray and keeping continuity along the O-line (something the Cardinals lacked in ’18). The roster is a blend of players that have come from Air Raid schemes or fit the mold of a player needed for the offense to find success.

Many will turn to the lack of success by Chip Kelly and his “spread-to-run” tempo attack. Arizona Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury’s offense is a little different. Kingsbury will tempo the ball as much as he can, but it isn’t the focal point of his offense. His pass-first mentality is something of the norm in a QB led league that focuses on breaking down coverages and blitz schemes. The run game will obviously need to become more robust than it was in the Big 12, but the key parts are there. In short, the roster, at least on the offensive side, is built for early success if everyone stays healthy and the young players progress. Again, and this cannot be stressed enough, Kyler Murray has to stay healthy and find success.

Behind Kingsbury is a wealth of success from his Air Raid “family.” You could say, Kingsbury, is the first to get his NFL “shot.” Former Mike Leach QB, Graham Harrell, played four years in the NFL, three under Aaron Rodgers and current Arizona Cardinal Passing Game Coordinator/QB Coach Tom Clements, and replaced Kingsbury’s short tenure as USC’s Offensive Coordinator. The hiring of Clements, who worked 11 seasons in Green Bay, gives a legitimate voice in the meeting room and a proven QB coach.

Washington St. Head Coach Mike Leach has always clamored about the NFL being too stuck-up to run the scheme. In a recent interview for KJR-AM in Seattle, Leach was very clear about his system having success in the league, “Any notion that ‘anything you can run in college, you can’t run in the NFL,’ that’s just NFL arrogance and lunacy.” Though Kingsbury is his own man when it comes to ownership of his scheme, there are a lot of eyes around the country betting on Kingsbury to succeed.

Maybe the most important relationship of all will be between QB1 Kyler Murray and Kingsbury himself. The exchanging of ideas will be crucial because Murray also has ties to another elite Air Raid guru from the same tree, Oklahoma Sooner Head Coach Lincoln Riley. In Part 1 I alluded to the meshing of concepts from Riley’s high-powered Sooner attack and Kingsbury’s bombs-away offense. Especially the use (and addition) of TEs into Kingsbury’s scheme. In his last season at Tech, Kingsbury began using more TEs and H-backs for run support in his offense. At the NFL level, he will need to rely on this heavily. It is rare to see a true 10 pers. formation outside of long-yardage or obvious pass situations.

You would be hard-pressed to find anyone that would argue Lincoln Riley’s offensive schematics not working in the NFL. Many will argue if Kingsbury has instant success, many in the NFL will be knocking down Riley’s door in 2020. Where Kingsbury is an Air Raid purest, choosing to base out of four WR sets, Riley has transitioned into a 12 pers. based Air Raid onslaught with a power running game to boot. Not ironically though, Kingsbury’s first snap as an NFL Head Coach in practice came from a four-wide 10 pers. set (see below).

Continue reading “Desert Heat: The Air Raid Invades the NFL – Pt. 2”

Desert Heat: The Air Raid Invades the NFL – Pt. 1

What will Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray look like in the NFL? Part 1 explores one of the most critical parts, roster building.

2018 was a breakout year for offenses in the NFL. Teams accumulated 1,371 TDs throughout the season, the most ever in NFL history. Before 2018, there were only three seasons were three offenses averaged over 30+ points a game: 1948, 1949, and 2011 season which saw Green Bay, New Orleans, and New England all scoring over 500+ points. Rushing yards per carry were the highest they have ever been (4.42), and the NFL saw the most players ever record 100 receptions, with 11 doing so. Most notably in 2018 was the offensive prowess of Kansas City and the LA Rams (New Orleans was the third team to average 30+ points in ’18). The Chiefs led by the electric NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes (a Kingsbury product) and the LA Rams with their innovative Head Coach Sean McVay.

Screen Shot 2019-07-26 at 12.30.45 PM

Both the Chiefs and the Rams used “Spread” sets but in different ways. The Chiefs embraced Mahomes freakish athletic abilities and history of working from the shotgun combining this with quick motions and moving their athletes all over the field (shown above). Kansas City finished 2018 with third-best points scored in NFL history, only behind the 2013 Manning-led Broncos (605) and the 2007 Brady-Moss led Patriots (589), both averaging 35+ points a game. Mahomes would finish the year over the 5,000-yard passing mark and the leagues MVP in only his second year.

Screen Shot 2019-07-26 at 12.32.35 PM.png

The Rams innovative offense chose more or a “Pro-Style” approach to the Spread (above), barely leaving 11 pers. and used a mixture of Zone runs, reduced split formations combined with crossing routes, and play-action passes to destroy defenses all year long (well, until the Super Bowl). Behind a young QB (Jared Goff) and Head Coach, the Rams were able to march through the playoffs and into the Super Bowl where they would eventually lose to the Patriots. Goff would finish the year with over 4,600 yards passing and the Rams’ RB, Todd Gurley, finishing with over 1,400 on the ground while leading the league in total TDs (21).

Alarm bells were ringing all over the NFL. Defensive coaches and pundits alike were looking for ways to stop the never-ending onslaught of offense. By October NFL records were being broken around the league. The topic of defense continued to come up with pundits asking, have NFL defensive schemes become too antiquated, and is there a paradigm shift about to happen? Doug Farrar of USA Today wrote a three-part piece on the topic in November. There has never been a better time for a true Air Raid purest to enter the league. Enter Kliff Kingsbury and the 2019 Arizona Cardinals. Continue reading “Desert Heat: The Air Raid Invades the NFL – Pt. 1”

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Summer Book Review

Urban Meyer’s “Above the Line”

In honor of my book being published (Cautious Aggression – click the link to get your copy), I figured I’d review the book I read to start the summer, Urban Meyer’s “Above the Line.” I believe that reading allows us to open our minds and truly think critically about the actions we have taken. Reading pushes us to redefine our reality and forces us to take a critical eye on our actions. Fiction books allow us to escape, highlighting the things we are trying to run away from. Non-fiction and coaching books, in particular, force the reader to look inward and inspires us to do better than we have been. As Harry S. Truman once put it, “… all leaders are readers.” Maybe you are looking for more ideas on leadership or a new way to approach the game of football, reading helps us grow. Meyer’s says it clearly at the beginning of his book, “Leaders are learners,” (p. 7). Continue reading “Summer Book Review”

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